Document Type

Report

Publication Date

2000

Subject Area

Location - Europe, Location - UK, Location - USA, Mobility - Independence, Modes of Transport - Car - Driving, Population - Ageing of the Population, Population - Driving cessation, Population - Frail aged

Abstract

The ageing of the population is a worldwide phenomenon whose dimensions are fairly well-known. And in most developed countries, the numbers are sobering - roughly one in four people will be senior citizens well before 2050. Less well understood are the fundamental changes that are also taking place. The extent of ageing and life-course changes, and their implications for policy, are only beginning to be understood. Some of these changes raise concern. However, the basic news is good. Increased longevity, good health and independence are key values in their own right. They are also a reflection of the underlying strength of social and economic issues in the OECD countries. This paper compares North American experiences to European ones in order to assist European policymakers to better understand both the transitional and long-term transportation policy and planning implications of an ageing society. This is not an easy task. This paper adopts an alternative way to evaluate the full dimensions of the sometimes profound societal forces which will shape the transportation patterns of the elderly in the next half century, based on the approach discussed by Randi Hjorthol and Fridulv Sagberg. They suggest a three-part analytical structure for identifying and then evaluating the complex forces which have created the travel needs of older people today. This paper uses those three factors to illuminate the future: Age effects, those that come as the result of the physical ageing process; Cohort effects - those that result when sub-sets (or cohorts) of the population share a common experience over a period of time, an experience not shared by other population cohorts which came before or after; and Period effects - those which impact everyone in the population at the same time. At the same time, this paper recognized that all these effects and, in particular, cohort and period effects, can overlap or have a synergetic impact. Older people today, for example are healthier, that is, experience different age effects than those who were 65+ a few decades ago. And this is a result of a complicated set of cohort and period effects - better nutrition, more health education, higher incomes, etc. Thus it may be difficult of unambiguously categorize any event or trend. In this paper, Chapter 2 first explores the demographic trends which unite Europe and North America. The paper then examines the changing travel patterns of older people in various industrial countries. Chapters 3 and 4 focus on the likely impact of age and then cohort effects on the travel patterns and needs of older people in the future. Chapter 4 reviews period effects, key economic and social trends and government policies which will also shape the travel patterns of people as they age. Finally, in Chapter 5, the paper suggest new policy directions which might better respond to the ageing of society.