Title

Unsettling suburbia: the new landscape of oil and mortgage vulnerability in Australian cities

Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

2008

Subject Area

Location - Outer suburbs, Location - Urban fringe, Modes of Transport - Car - Driving

Abstract

This paper provides an update of a report which was released in 2006 titled 'Shocking the suburbs' - which examined the distribution of household exposure to higher petrol prices, mortgage interest rate rises and general price inflation due to increases in global oil prices. That paper received wide attention from scholars, policy makers and the media. In that paper, we presented a numerical index which we created called the 'vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petroleum and inflation risks and expenditure' (VAMPIRE). This index measures the extent of household exposure to the impacts of higher fuel prices and mortgage interest rates. The 2006 paper used data from the 2001 ABS Census, whereas the data from the 2006 Census became available in early 2008. Thus we have been able to update the original VAMPIRE analysis to identify changes in the distribution of oil and mortgage vulnerability over time. This paper has 4 aims. First it reviews the basis for the increases in global oil prices seen since 2004. Next the paper considers some of the emerging evidence of socio-economic impacts arising from higher fuel prices and mortgage interest rates. Third, the paper presents the results of the 2006 VAMPIRE and compares them to the 2001 VAMPIRE results. Finally, the paper makes observations about the policy implication of the changes in oil and mortgage vulnerability within Australian cities - including advocating for urgent government action to address the oil vulnerability of Australian cities and suburbs and reiterating our earlier call for more in-depth research on this increasingly unsettling issue.